MLB Stuff, BOS vs NYY

-Oh baby, championship Monday is gonna be a great day for sports fans. I think Im going to Peddlers Loft with DJ MC and Greeny for a marathon. Attempt to eat and drink while watching Sox opener, Yanks opener, and then Mich St / UNC. Some of you guys should definitely come to the loft with me for that. Beckett vs the crispy TB Rays with Shields on the mound. For all of us fantasy baseball nerds its a pretty sweet day. Also note that the three blogfathers all belong to the same fantasy super league. J-Perk is a fantasy rook. We finally convinced him to give it a shot (hes addicted now).

-I know its hard for this comment to hold credibility considering we are the boston blogfathers but I like the Sox over NY this season. I promise Im objective with comments like those and am probably overly critical of the Red Sox at times. (I openly hated everything about the Clement/Drew/Lugo signings the days the news broke.)

Lets say you match BOS/NYY up in a playoff series. Beckett has some question marks so lets be conservative and give Sabathia a game 1 win even though its closer to a wash. I like Lester over Wang (big) in game 2 and I like Dice over Burnett in gm 3 although thats probably a wash as well. So Boston starting pitching gets the nod in a playoff series and its even stronger when you factor in its depth (Smoltz, Penny, Buccholz). Next, the Sox have the best bullpen of my lifetime easily this year which is going to be an incredible ace in the hole. Okajima, Masterson, MDC, Ramirez, Saito all big time strikeout arms and all could be closers in the majors, its insanity.

And then there is this illusion that we are taking our Manny-less lineup against the juiced Murderers' Row of 2003, when the truth is that the offenses are probably a wash. Boston's lineup has 8 above average hitters. Ortiz, Pedroia, Youk and Bay are all good hitters and Ells/Drew/Lowell/Lowrie all add runs to the lineup. For the top of the NY lineup, Damon had a good yr last year and Jeter is trending down. Those two are both 35. Teixeira and Rodriguez are who the offense is built around and one of them is gone for who knows how long and hes putting off surgery so who knows if he'll come back and get reinjured. Matsui (35) and Nady (30) are OK, Cano can still hit, Posada (37) sucks, and Gardener is a poor mans Ellsbury. The Yanks could have a better offense than Boston but that lineup only has 3 guys who aren't over 30 years old and they need A-Rod.

So how is NY favored over Boston? Those big signings bring attention. Fans do not associate the Sox with being the best team in baseball without any 20 million dollar players. Check out the ranks from Joe Sheehan that just came out for top 10 teams. This is from baseball prospectus, the same site that brings us the genius PECOTA projection system.

#2: New York Yankees (95-67, 789 RS, 675 RA)
The age of this offense is a big concern, and it was even before Alex Rodriguez went down, reminding everyone of how Jorge Posada's shoulder changed the 2008 season. Six of the nine regulars are past-peak guys, giving the lineup a 2008 Tigers feel. There's more depth on the pitching staff, and with A.J. Burnett not in a walk year, they'll likely need it. The bullpen, which gets very little attention, is a huge strength for this team; the Yankees may win a number of games in which a starter gets knocked out just because their #11 and #12 guys are likely to be average pitchers. They're DOA if Posada can't catch 120 games, however. The fallback positions are awful, and there would be a nasty effect on everyone's playing time if he has to DH. Finally: less Xavier Nady, more Nick Swisher.

#1: Boston Red Sox (102-60, 822 RS, 637 RA)
The Red Sox have a ridiculous amount of pitching on hand, which makes their efforts to gild the lily by adding John Smoltz, Brad Penny, and Takashi Saito seem sinful. Clay Buchholz couldn't make this team, and he'd be the top starter on about six other staffs. Justin Masterson is between roles, and he'd be the second starter on six others. This is a run-prevention team now, with plus defenders at most positions to go with a staff that is going to give them easy work on a lot of nights, and pitching depth that no team can match. If there's a problem, it's some lack of offensive depth and a reliance on players, such as Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew, and David Ortiz, who have recent injury histories. They might need a bat come the summer.

-Gammons was pointing out something that I liked the other day. There is a ton of young talent in the game right now. A lot has come up last year and there should be more this year with Wieters and a big group of very good pitchers breaking in. Its sort of the point where the NBA was 5 or 6 years ago, about to blow. It almost feels like we are getting rid of the last of the steroid guys and ushering in a new era. Better all around ballplayers but the 60 HR guys are gone. Even a few years ago 5 or 6 guys had a chance to hit 50HR and now we only have 4 or 5 guys who can make a run at 40, and only 1 with a good chance at 50.

-Buster Olney's blog is a must read for baseball fans, espn.com insider though.

-Wolfie