The Wait is Over

We've waited over a year for this moment. Well, 373 days to be exact. But it felt even longer.

We've gone through a harsh winter, a hopeful spring and a rainy summer. In that time we've seen the death of the King of Pop, the passing of a Kennedy legend, the nation's first black president and a recession that will go down as second worst in American history after the Great Depression.

New England has been depressed. We were bounced from the NBA and NHL playoffs, squashing hopes of a parquet-to-ice same day switch in mid June. The local baseball team made a valiant effort last October, but an undermanned and ultimately tired ball club sputtered out in the 7th game of the ALCS.

A lot has gone down since Tom Brady left the 2008 season opener with a torn knee. Now the wait is over. No. 12 is back and with him dreams of a championship, the fourth of the decade and one that would firmly establish the Patriots as THE team of the 2000s.

Last year, we had Matt Cassell, the man who just made himself $63 million with his solid performance last season. We had 11-5. But it wasn't enough. Something was missing in out lives. And that something just happens to have a cannon arm, uncanny confidence, blue eyes and a cute lil bum chin.

From P-Town to Pawtucket, Bangor to Boston, New England is rejoicing. Brady means more to us than any QB to any other fan base. Guys love him. Chicks dig him. Little kids idolize him. Everyone sweats him. His revered. Already, a spot sits for him in the pantheon of Boston Greats, right next to Williams, Bird, Yaz, Russell, Orr and Bourque.

He's ours. And he's back.

7 p.m. EST. Getcha' popcorn ready...

--Nick

So Sick of...Brett Favre

(Every day this week, WKFTB will bring you someone we are sick of hearing/watching/existing. This is Thursday's edition.)

OK, enough with this guy. Anyone who knows me knows I have an embedded distain for this grey-bearded, INT-bomber. In fact, the other two WKFTB members used to be adamant supporters of Uncle Brett, but I don’t even think they would come to his defense now.

The good-ole-boy gushing media are even starting to turn on Favre now. Let’s face it, everyone is getting sick of him. At least when Jordan came back, he just announced it and came back. Plus he pretty much owned the team during his second comeback with Washington (such a weird thing now that you think about it, isn’t it?).

But with Brett we get the same thing everyyyy year: a retirement statement, tears, a rogue report saying his working out, then a wishy-washy offseason of Brett Watch – Will He or Won’t He?

We’re all tired of it. He’s not even that good anymore, as evidenced by his horrible performance down the stretch last season. Well, except that game against the Pats. Thanks, bro!

We even get reports now on deadlines for the aging quarterback to return, followed by reports saying that, well, there is no deadline. Hell, there was even a “news” story on ESPN.com saying that members of Favre’s family bought a bunch of hotel rooms in Green Bay for a winter weekend. Who’s in town that weekend? The Vikings!

And we’re about a week away from a Peter King exclusive where Brett says he’s coming back to play for Minnesota to help stick it to the Packers. Only will Minny even want him by then? Brad Childress has already made it clear in his recent remarks to the media that he wants his QB, his team leader, whether it’s Sage, Tavaris or Brett, to be in attendance at mini-camps. Will they wait to see if Brett decides he wants to play again?

Or will Brett try to hold another team hostage for as long as possible, keeping his legendary cloud hanging above the heads of the other two Viking QBs, not to mention their offensive coordinators, the receivers, the O-Line and the fans?

How can an NFL team legitimately prepare for the season with the prospect of a dramatic change in personal at the most important position on the field? This is why the Packers cut bait, as cold as it may have seemed at the time. And this is why the fans – the Green Bay fans who named kids after him, still relish his jerseys and probably would chop of a hand to have a beer with him – are starting to turn on him. Well, that and the fact that he might go play for their fiercest rival. But will he come back?

Only time with tell. And if there’s one thing Brett Favre loves the most, it’s wasting your time.

--Nick

No Rest For Rooks

(Aaron Curry OLB Wake Forest)

Is the NFL draft too much for rookies? I was listening to Jamie Dukes of the NFL Network talk about it the other day. If you know about how much goes into preparing for the draft, you can start to realize how the players go at it for a year straight. Its no wonder NFL rookies hit a wall. Often called the rookie wall, and attributed to 16 games as opposed to 10 or so in NCAA, its really more about the draft preparation.

NCAA seniors who are NFL prospects play their bowl games and then start planning their predraft timeline. They immediately start working out and have to decide where they are going to train for the draft. See the difference between a 1st round draft pick and a 3rd rounder is about 2 or 3 tenths on your 40 time. Which is funny since technique can account for that much of a time gap alone. Darius Heyward-Bey ran a 4.30 lazer last weekened, the fastest at the combine. If he ran a 4.5 he probably goes 3 or 4 rounds later which equals millions of dollars, or millions of dollars lost.

Seniors work out for a few weeks and then most play in an all star game like the Senior Bowl or the Shrine game. After the bowls you hire specialists or go to a performance institute and do grueling workouts for a month in preparation for the combine (40 time). Now back to workouts and hope to post a better 40 at your pro day in late march or early April. After the pro day its pretty much Draft time and then you join the guys on your new team who have been resting all winter at mini camp and proceed to play the most violent game on the planet for the next 8 months. Thats a guide how to overwork your body. No wonder rookies break down.

Who are some of the blue chippers this year? Here are a couple on the defensive side.

Aaron Curry LB Wake Forest - Just a dream prospect that can play any LB position in a 4-3 or 3-4. Kid is versatile, smart, athletic, big, strong, explosive, makes the big play, etc. Hes not the flashiest but this kid is a friggin rock. Safest pick in the draft. He blazed a 4.5 at the combine which only solidified his spot in the top 10, most likely top 5.

Brian Orakpo DE Texas - Kid is so explosive. Can be extremely dominant at times. 6'4 260 but strong. A little like Justin Tuck or Vernon Gholston coming out. That kind of force. Watch the video below.



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As for Free Agency today, damn the Redskins are nuts. Dan Snyder is a maniac/chooch. They really should have skipped out on Hall. You don't win titles in the NFL through free agency guys, cmon. You can grab the big names once in a while but choose wisely. Haynesworth could work out even though hes gettin billions. Signing Hall to a huge contract the same day is just too wreckless though. Thats the same money Asante signed for and hes actually good. This is the same team that paid David Patten for 13m then cut him after 23 catches. Same team that signed Randle El for 31m. They traded for 34 yr old Jason Taylor last year who proceeded to go from great to suck. They are real good at signing disappointments.

Thats what free agency will do though. Look at Boston sports for an example of how it should be done. A single player can have a huge effect in basketball (Garnett), but not so much when there are 9 or 11 guys on the field as opposed to 5. The Sox and Pats build through the draft and strong player development. Its hard for people to outperform their FA contracts. At best they live up to them. You want to have a roster full of players who are outperforming their current contracts so you have more collective talent because more money is available to be put towards other positions. This is especially true in football with the salary cap, but also in baseball when you have to compete with NY's 200m+ payroll .

-Wolfie

NFL Gone Wild

A little follow-up to Wolfie’s NFL post below:

Wow what day in the NFL and it’s only 3:30 EST. The first day of free agency has brought some huge contracts, big signings and three key trades.

First, the New England angle:
-Pats signed Fred Taylor. You know where you heard it first.
-Long-time long snapper Lonnie Paxton said it would take a substantial deal to get him to leave New England. Well how about the richest deal given to long snapper in the NFL?
-Pats traded Mike Vrabel to Kansas City. What the…did they owe Scott Pioli something? This was a bit of a head scratcher at first, but looking into his numbers he wasn’t nearly as productive in 2008 as in years past (4 sacks, 1 FF, 1 INT in ’08 compared to 12.5, 5, 0 in ’07). Still, he was a team leader and only 33. I read today that if the Pats keep Matt Cassell, they’ll have something like $2.3 million left under the cap. This move clears $3.35 million in cap room, so it may be more financial than anything. Does this mean they’re keeping Cassell? Or is it paving the way for someone like Julius Peppers? Who knows? It is a draft heavy with outside linebackers.

And around the rest of the league:
-The Redskins and Daniel Synder are going nuts again. After Wolfeman bro the news of Dangelo Hall signing for big money ($22.5 million guaranteed), the Skins went out and signed Albert Haynesworth to a FAT deal. Like $100 million with $41 mill guaranteed fat.
-Meanwhile, the Jets offer Ravens’ LB Bart Scott $40 million to come play for Gang Green. Look at this money! I’m convinced baseball owners are guilty of collusion. After all the whining about the economy and the crawling pace of free agency, it looks a little silly now that we see what the NFL is up to.

The other two trades after Vrabel:
-Sage Rosenfels to the Vikings. I dunno, he was a dece stopgap in fantasy.
-Speaking of fantasy, team killer Kellen Winslow was shipped to the Bucs for draft picks.

Wow what a day. And think, there’s still Kurt Warner, Hoosh, Ray Lewis, Laverenous Coles, and dozens of other big names out there. Just when I think I’m in baseball mode, the NFL lures me back in.

End with this sweet video. WARNING: Don't watch if you don't want to be amazed:

Veteran Presence for Pats?

Some interesting NFL veterans being cut or requesting trades these days. Here’s a few I could see with the Pats:

Fred Taylor

Taylor is someone who could replace Lamont Jordan as a bruising downhill runner to compliment Laurence Maroney. And as we saw the last two years, the health of Maroney and Sammy Morris is always questionable. One more running back can never hurt, especially one who admittedly wants to play for a contender.

Could he take a lesser role in New England? Well, he didn’t have much of a role with Jacksonville in 2008, with 143 carries for 556 yards. The 3.9 yards per carry is nothing spectacular, but part of that onus is on the Jaguars’ line, which only gave Maurice Jones-Drew enough room for 4.2 ypc and had David Garrard on behind most of the season.

A one-year deal in the $2-3 million range doesn’t seem out of the question.

Chris McAlister

McAlister spent most of last season rehabbing a knee injury away from his team, a fact that no doubt irked coach John Harbaugh and contributed to his release.

The Ravens’ decision to cut McAlister had more to do with money -- they saved $8 million by cutting him loose – and less with his play. McAlister is only 31 and he still has it. The three-time Pro Bowler recorded three interceptions in just five games last season before suffering his season-ending knee injury in the sixth game against the Colts.

He’s tall for Pats’ corner standards (6-foot-1) and he can bump the receiver or run with some of the best. There are injury concerns, as McAlister has missed 18 games the past two years, but that’s what I hope would bring him at a discount.

Is there anything the Pats need more than an affordable, physical veteran corner? I think not.

Tony Gonzalez

People always laugh when I say this one, but he wants out of Kansas City, the Chiefs need a QB, the Pats have a QB, the Chiefs have the No. 3 pick in the draft, Pats don’t want a Top 5 pick. A logical trade scenario would involve Cassel for Tony G and the early 2nd-round pick.

Could this work? Why not? A good-receiving tight end would do wonders for the Pats’ passing attack. Plus he’s a Madden and fantasy favorite of mine.

--Nick

A Tribute to....The Weekend.

It's back again....everyone's favorite time of the week. Many of you have some great plans for this evening I'm sure, however I bet they do not stack up to mine.

The WKFTB staff will be attending opening night at the Garden for the new Boston Blazers Lacrosse team.



(This random video is some dude jumping the Boston Blazers Dance Team).

I know what your wondering "Oh wow, how did you ever get your hands on such exclusive tickets!?!?!?" Well folks, when your as big as we are, things just fall into your lap. (Either that or season tickets in the balcony were 40 bucks for 8 games...I'll do the math for you that's 5 bucks a game).

Also of note this weekend the Bridge looks to go 3-0, Notorious and The Wrestler are showing, and both the AFC and NFC championship games are on. Mix all of those things with some beer or hard alcohol and have yourself some fun.

Go make some bad decisions and I'll see ya tomorrow......


- JPerk

Paying Homage: Kurt Warner

Im not going to rip off a thousand word column like I've been guilty of lately. Actually in general I am going to try to save the long posts for articles, not blogs. 

I do want to give homage to my boy Kurt Warner today.  In fantasy football I drafted Leinart very late and then picked up Warner off waivers and planned on playing whoever won the starting job but I was rooting for Warner. I came up with the strategy because I looked at how Warner had a better 2nd half of 2007 than Tom Brady. Plus that AZ system was going to get 4000 through the air with 30 td's.

So what happened? Warner was in the MVP debate this year after throwing for 4583 yards with 30TD's and the highest qb rating since he posted with the 2001 Rams and third in the NFL this season (ahead of Brees, Peyton). He carried my fantasy team to a 2nd place finish. And if it didn't snow in Foxboro in week 15, it might have been a first place finish. But this wasn't meant to be about fantasy, it was meant to be about how under appreciated Warner has been throughout his career.

I knew the majority of these stats anyway but I was reminded of them when I was reading an article on espn today. Warner has always posted good QB ratings but people have still thought of him as a stopgap in NY and AZ. A lot of people forget he even played for the Giants. Well how about the fact that the passer rating Warner posted in his one year in NY is higher than any rating Eli has posted since. 

So Warner had the third highest career QB rating in the NFL this year right? Well he also has the third highest career QB rating in the history of the game. 28,591 yards? 65.4 career completion percentage (2nd all time)? A superbowl ring, a superbowl MVP, 2 time NFL MVP, 4 pro bowls?

I think Warner is a hall of famer, no joke. He wins one or two more games this postseason and Canton is an absolute lock. Plus it would take a few more paragraphs to explain how charitable of a man he is. Heres to you Kurt, good luck Sunday my angel in shoulder pads...

-Wolfie

Sunday Locks: Balt -3, Phil/Minn Under 41

I got some good news for the blog late last night. Im connected to a message board that has some sports handicappers as members. I got permission (well, found out its allowed) to copy some of the picks and explanations they post on here as long as I'm not profiting (as in selling, not winning). So I will be posting some of their picks against the number for you bros who like to make the occasional bet with your legal sportsbook located in Las Vegas or overseas. I am not claiming these plays will hit like crazy so make sure you realize that. Its just for a little fun as something I think our betting readers will enjoy. Anyway on to todays locks, Baltimore -3 and Philly/Minn under 41.

I like Baltimore -3 today as my personal lock. I think the Raven defense will embarass the gimmicky wildcat formation. The Ravens defense is ferocious and studious. Lewis is somehow having a great year again and Reed is at the top of his game. I love them because of 3 reasons, intuition, bias, and numbers. Intuition in that I just see Ed Reed scoring after picking either a duck from Ronnie Brown or a floater from Pennington to Ginn Jr. Bias in that I just think Miami is wiggity whack. And numbers because the guys from Football Outsiders are stat/number crunching monsters and have a proven rating system that depends on pure data input, no eyeball tests, and it has had Baltimore as the 2nd best team by the numbers almost all season. Jump on my back if you want, but both of the tempting road favorites did kill a lot of people yesterday.

Sunday's lock (Tom Friedman): Philly @ Minn Under 41 pts

One key stat a lot of handicappers look at when analyzing a total is red-zone percentage and this matchup pits two teams that aren’t effective inside the 20. Minnesota reached the red-zone 44 times this season and mustered up 19 touchdowns and 17 field goals, which was ranked 28th in the league. Philadelphia was ranked 22nd but it didn’t light up the scoreboard either, scoring just 31 touchdowns in 61 trips for a 49.2 scoring percentage.

Disclaimer: Betting is not profitable over the long run. Jake and Jared do not recommend you make illegal wagers on the outcome of sporting events. We also do not want to hear you complain because you put the mortgage down on a game that was commented about here. If you understand sports betting and a little bit of probability, you know that over the long run you will win half your bets and lose the vig. Re-read the first sentence of this disclaimer. Play for fun if you gamble.