Sunday Locks: Balt -3, Phil/Minn Under 41

I got some good news for the blog late last night. Im connected to a message board that has some sports handicappers as members. I got permission (well, found out its allowed) to copy some of the picks and explanations they post on here as long as I'm not profiting (as in selling, not winning). So I will be posting some of their picks against the number for you bros who like to make the occasional bet with your legal sportsbook located in Las Vegas or overseas. I am not claiming these plays will hit like crazy so make sure you realize that. Its just for a little fun as something I think our betting readers will enjoy. Anyway on to todays locks, Baltimore -3 and Philly/Minn under 41.

I like Baltimore -3 today as my personal lock. I think the Raven defense will embarass the gimmicky wildcat formation. The Ravens defense is ferocious and studious. Lewis is somehow having a great year again and Reed is at the top of his game. I love them because of 3 reasons, intuition, bias, and numbers. Intuition in that I just see Ed Reed scoring after picking either a duck from Ronnie Brown or a floater from Pennington to Ginn Jr. Bias in that I just think Miami is wiggity whack. And numbers because the guys from Football Outsiders are stat/number crunching monsters and have a proven rating system that depends on pure data input, no eyeball tests, and it has had Baltimore as the 2nd best team by the numbers almost all season. Jump on my back if you want, but both of the tempting road favorites did kill a lot of people yesterday.

Sunday's lock (Tom Friedman): Philly @ Minn Under 41 pts

One key stat a lot of handicappers look at when analyzing a total is red-zone percentage and this matchup pits two teams that aren’t effective inside the 20. Minnesota reached the red-zone 44 times this season and mustered up 19 touchdowns and 17 field goals, which was ranked 28th in the league. Philadelphia was ranked 22nd but it didn’t light up the scoreboard either, scoring just 31 touchdowns in 61 trips for a 49.2 scoring percentage.

Disclaimer: Betting is not profitable over the long run. Jake and Jared do not recommend you make illegal wagers on the outcome of sporting events. We also do not want to hear you complain because you put the mortgage down on a game that was commented about here. If you understand sports betting and a little bit of probability, you know that over the long run you will win half your bets and lose the vig. Re-read the first sentence of this disclaimer. Play for fun if you gamble.