Breaking It Down - Can Zona Really Win?

This post is pretty awful in terms of structure because I was all over the place, but give it a chance. I think by the end of it I might be able to convince you to bet the Cardinal's. I'm editing it right now but wanted to get something up asap.

The underdog story is always nice. The public always gravitates towards them, very cute. Then the game starts and you usually see why they were underdogs. 'What about last year though Wolfie?' Touche. But I erased that game from my memory so I don't know what you're talking about. Anyway, with the week off in between, people usually can talk themselves into how their adopted underdog can actually win against a better team. But Hope and belief are very different things. This is evidenced in the fact that 36 of the states want Zona to win, but the Steelers are still favored by a full 7 points. I've talked myself into the Cardinals lately too, thing is, I'm ready to put my money where my mind is. Read on to find out why I think the Cardinals will actually win this game (or lose by less than a TD).

Kurt Warner. The guy is a saint, this much we know, but what I want to talk about is why I think he walks off the field as the MVP tonight. The more I've went over this game in my head over the last two weeks, the more I think this matchup works for Warner. Pitt's strength is the blitz and stuffing the run. Warner is great against the blitz and Zona doesn't run anyway.

Think about it, Warner started in the arena league where its set, hut, boom, get the ball out. St Louis it was quick drops, timing routes, crossing routes, an extension of Arena ball in Martz offense. This Cardinal spread offense isn't too far off from those. Warner has always been great against the blitz and was at the top of the league against it statistically this season. Watch for some quick slant ins to Fitz, Boldin, and the Cards third WR to catch for over 1000 yards and will be in the slot, Breaston.

When you flip it, it still looks solid for AZ. Noone is really talking about Pitt's offense against Zona's defense. How about pressure on Roethlisberger? Guy got sacked the most times in the league. He also led the league in fumbles, a stat that Warner used to struggle with so much. AZ leads the league in forcing fumbles, which is something you might not have known. The Steelers also drop passes more often than 23 other teams in the NFL. Pitt should have just as hard of a time with Zona's pass rush as the other way around and if you shut down Holmes, Parker would need to have a huge day for them to put up many points.

Another thing that is making me lean toward the midwest is Whisenhunt. The guy is two years removed from knowing that personnel in Pitt inside and out. He knows Dick Lebeau and how he will want to approach this game. He has literally seen every single blitz in Lebeau's playbook. He knows if Polamalu struggles against play action on first down, that you can't let Roth roll to his right, that Ike Taylor sucks at covering the deep in, etc etc. Whisenhunt knowing Pitt inside and out is a big angle for me. (I think its different than Mangini/Belichick too because Pitt has an identity that hasn't changed, NE could morph into anything and Bill knew Eric better than Eric knew Bill.)

I disagree with Nick about Hines, I think he is important to Pitt. His physical play sets the tone for that offense and he is their third down threat, not Heath Miller (though AZ has noone to cover Miller in this game). When he lays people out it energizes that team. If he isn't healthy it hurts Pitt not in terms of big plays (thats Santonio now), but it hurts them with sustained drives and their ability to set something I'm gonna get to in a minute, tempo.

Also you need to watch special teams. Holmes and Breaston are both dynamic but noone is talking about how Pitt's special team coverage is a disaster, as I heard some Mike Lombardi talk about on Simmon's podcast this week. Pitt is 29th and 31st in punt and kickoff coverage this season and have given up big plays in both playoff games. Thats a serious weakness I have only heard one person bring up all week.

Zona is very good when they are good. Nice sentence right? I'm half serious though. If Zona is amped for a game, with the defense playing well, the offense healthy and Edge with some burst, playing in nice weather, they are a scary ass team. All those things are going for them right now. This isn't in the snow in NE. This isn't the team without a corner to match up against Holmes (DRC). This isn't the team that clinched their division and napped for a few weeks. That 9-7 record doesn't really matter. Right now, today, actually tonight, these teams aren't that far apart.

Bottom line: Tempo, to me, is so important in competition. Whoever can dictate it and play in their comfort zone is going to win 90% of the time. The good teams dictate tempo and their opponents can't do anything to stop it. The great teams can play fast or slow, halfcourt or press, blitz or cover, come out throwing bombs or counter punch. These two teams tonight have an identity and they aren't great, they're good. Pitt wants to grind you out and Zona wants to light you up. Its not just scoring though, its just the speed between beats, its who can get into their rhythm. Whoever dictates the tempo wins tonight.

You know the only category Pitt's defense struggles with? Defending the 2 minute drill, 21st in the league. If Arizona spreads it out and runs the 2 minute drill all game, they can set the tempo and win this game. If the Cards try to bang with Pitt and can't get in a rhythm they don't have a shot. Personally, I'm taking the 7 points.

Enjoy the game.

- Jared Wolfe