Jonathan Papel...gone?

I was planning this post for a long time, somewhat forgot about it, then had my interest in the subject perked by a report last week that Jonathan Papelbon said he was open to singing with the Yankees when we becomes a free agent in 2011.

Here is exactly what caused the big stir; Papelbon when asked in A Sirius Radio interview if he would consider going to the Yankees, answered affirmatively and then followed it up with this:

"Not only the Bronx, but anywhere, I think anywhere is a possibility," he said. "You always have to keep that in the back of your mind because you can't just be one-sided and think that, 'Oh I'm going to be in a Red Sox uniform my entire career.' Because nowadays that is very, very rare."

Predictably, the Sox closer has backed off those comments since in interviews with the Globe and Herald, but the bigger point is that for some time now, there was been subtle indications that the outspoken flamethrower’s days in Boston could be numbered.

From Papelbon’s first major contract negation after the 2007 season, it was apparent this was going to be a unique case. Papelbon was not yet even arbitration eligible then, the Red Sox under no obligation to give him more than the major league minimum, which was $390,000 at the time.

Still, the Sox ponied up $775,000, a record amount for a reliever not eligible for arbitration, topping Mariano Rivera’s 1998 contract by $25,000. At the time, Papelbon had told anyone who would listen that he was trying to “set the bar” for relievers to come, comparing himself to the legendary Rivera and expressing a desire to play year to year on 1-year deals to maximize earning potential, rather than lock up a multiyear pact.

Here’s what we said after that deal in 2008:

"I'm pleased because I feel like I was able to somewhat set a precedent for pitchers to come," Papelbon said before Friday's game against the Minnesota Twins, one day after the deal was announced. "That was definitely one of my goals. I felt like the Red Sox were on board with me to do that. Now it's something I don't have to worry about and we can just move forward.

"Unless it's something that is very inviting, I don't think that I'll really take anything into consideration," Papelbon said about the prospect of signing a multiyear deal. "I'm going to go out and play this year. More than likely, we'll figure that out at the end of the year."

That same year, when taking about the Sox upcoming renewal situations with Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedoria and Clay Buchholtz, Paps had this little nugget:

“We need to take a stand and not let them take advantage of us just because they can.”

Fast forward to this past January. Papelbon, after another lights out campaign in 2008, was finally eligible for arbitration. Fearing he would ask for anywhere from $7-$10 million – and maybe get something close to that – Boston avoided going to the courts and settled with Paps for another 1-year deal, this one for $6.25 million.

The deal marked the largest pact in history for a closer who was eligible for arbitration for the first time and the third highest in history by any first-time arbitration-eligible player behind Miggy Cabrera and Ryan Howard.

He certainly deserves to be paid like one of the best because frankly he is one of the best. This is now attack on Jonathan Papelbon. But just by looking at the history of hi negotiations with the club, at his comments and his admitted desire to set the bar not only for himself but for all relievers, don’t you find the winter of 2011 a bit concerning?

I say there is an 85% chance that 2011 is his last year in the club. That would be two more seasons after this, plenty of time for Manny Delcarlmen, Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson or another one of the Sox bounty of young live arms to establish themselves as a dominating late-inning presence.

But after affectionately stepping in as the face of the Boston franchise after the ’07 World Series and even moreso after the departure of Manny Ramirez, it would be a bit odd to see Papelbon pitching for any organization other than Boston.

That doesn’t mean I’m staunchly opposed to it. You can’t be considering the fleeting lifespan of closers and the Sox plethora of young pitching. But it is something to look out for, something I think you’ll see become an issue each and every winter and subsequent contract negotiation – for two more years at least.